Nigeria's Opposition Party APC Edges Towards Victory In The Presidential Elections

Incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan May Become The First Nigerian President In Office To Lose An Election.

Political Analysis and Comments
by Tom Okure, Ph.D
March 31, 2015

Former military ruler of Nigeria Muhammadu Buhari, who is 72 years old and says he is a born-again democrat is winning with a very clear margin according to INEC reported poll results.  Buhari pledges to clean up the corrupt politics that has engulfed Africa’s largest economy and its most populous country. 

On Monday March 30, 2015, Nigeria's independent electoral commission {INEC) released the polling results of eight states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), as it began the collation and announcement of the presidential election's results.

Early poll results early today Tuesday March 31, 2015 indicated that Muhammadu Buhari is still leading with 8,520,436 in 10 states and Jonathan gathered 6,488,210 in 8 states and FCT.

Before we published this blog post, new confirmed polling results now reported from 30 of Nigeria’s states, plus the Federal Capital territory of Abuja, who have declared results, still indicate that Buhari is still leading incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, by 13,314,482 votes to 10,536,986.

If President Goodluck Jonathan loses to Buhari, he would be the first incumbent Nigerian president to lose an election

A Very Big Win For Nigeria's Young Democracy

Nigerian voters all over the country waited patiently on March 28 and 29, 2015 to exercise their civil right to vote. In some instances voters were forced to wait more than eight hours and endure harsh weather conditions including heavy tropical rain storms and the scorching sun.

They arrived in droves to the polling stations and included all kinds and types of voters, the young, the elderly, men, women, and mothers with children and some with babies strapped to their backs. It was Nigeria’s biggest and most exciting election held since the country gained independence. There were moments of high drama, technical glitches with voting equipment, shortage of ballot papers was reported in many parts of the country and some violence and tensions were also reported.

Notwithstanding who ends up as the declared winner in the presidential elections, one thing is clear, Nigerian democracy is the real winner of the exciting political campaign and voting season.

The video below (Attribution: Channels Television) shows INEC presentation of the results of eight states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

 


More Election Results

Source: Nigerian Tribune
Date: March 31, 2015


As of 11.20 p.m., the results from 18 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), had been presented by collation officers made up of vice chancellors in Nigerian universities.


The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, from the results released, won in 10 states, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kogi, Ogun, Ondo, Kwara, Oyo and Osun.

Buhari garnered massive votes from Katsina, his home state, Kano, Kaduna and Jigawa states.
The total figure for the 10 states is 8,520,436. Also, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan, won in eight states of Abia, Anambra, Ekiti, Enugu, Nasarawa, Akwa Ibom, Plateau and Imo, including the FCT.

The total figure for the PDP winning states is 6,488,210. President Jonathan was able to garner more votes from Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Anambra, Abia and Imo states.

Signing out on Monday night, Professor Jega said the presentation of the results would continue today by 10.00 a.m.

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Nigerian Presidential and Parliamentary Elections on March 28, 2015

Nigerian Democracy and the Presidential and Parliamentary Elections Scheduled for March 28, 2015

Comments by Tom Okure, Ph.D

The upcoming presidential elections on March 28, 2015 is one of the most rigorously campaigned and analyzed elections in the history of modern Nigerian democracy. Both pundits and partisans have expressed their views and positions on the pros and cons associated with the election of the two main front runners on -- the incumbent president Godluck Jonathan of the PDP political party and his main opposition ex-military ruler Muhammadu Buhari of the APC party.

As we approach the end of the long drawn campaign season, the frontline party candidates are making every effort to make their presence and message heard all over the country, and have campaigned alongside with their spouses and supporters, making impressive and lofty promises to the Nigerian masses, some of which are dubious at best and one is very doubtful can be fulfilled under the current economic climate that the country is facing due to the sharp drop in oil revenue. Nevertheless, the Nigerian voting public is highly energized and appears prepaid to cast their vote no matter the circumstance that the country is in because there is a lot at stack on the outcome of the elections for the security and the overall economic wellbeing of the country.

The eyes of the world is on Nigeria this weekend, and the way and conduct of the elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is being closely watched and monitored from inside and outside of Nigeria. Even more important and of concern to everyone who loves Nigeria is the atmosphere that should prevail in the country after the elections among supporters of the winning and losing party. A transparent election and peaceful atmosphere after the election will indicate that our democracy is gaining root in the country. Conversely, the eruption of violence and any unwillingness to concede defeat assuming a fair election is achieved would indicate that our democracy has failed to deepen and properly root and it will indicate that the political campaigns and promises that we are witnessing was just a charade and a façade used by our political elite to gain political power to continue the exploitation of the suffering masses.

BBC News reporter Peter Okwoche in the video which follows took a pulse of the voters by speaking to potential voters in the city of Port Harcourt in the oil-producing region of the Niger Delta. Take a Listen to who the voters say the will be voting for on Mach 28, 2015.

#Nigeria goes to the polls on Saturday for long-awaited presidential and parliamentary elections. It is a contest mainly between President Goodluck Jonathan and former military ruler General Muhammadu Buhari. The BBC's Peter Okwoche has been speaking to some prospective voters in the oil-producing region of the Niger Delta.
Posted by BBC Africa on Wednesday, March 25, 2015

US President Obama Says "To Keep Nigeria One Is A Task That Must Be Done."

ICMS, Inc Listen and Learn Series:

President Obama’s Message to the Nigerian People On Democracy and Free and Non Violent Elections

Commentary by Tom Okure, Ph.D
March 23, 2015

US President Barack Obama in a brief speech to Nigerians a few days before the National Elections talks about the importance of Democracy and the Essence of having a Credible and Violent Free Voting in the elections. He concludes his brief speech with what he calls a Nigerian saying: "To Keep Nigeria One Is A Task That Must Be Done".......That statement or saying as Obama puts it is a War Time Slogan and an ECHO and emotional calling relating to Nigeria's tumultuous history and "Civil War Past" which the younger Nigerian generation and even many of the current political elites do not understand or fully appreciate.

Yakubu Gowon

I posit here that unless you lived through Nigeria's civil war within the boundaries of the then breakaway Eastern Nigeria or Biafra as it was called, you cannot fully understand the emotional underpinning of that saying  "To Keep Nigeria One Is A Task That Must Be Done."  It was not just a saying but the Policy Objective of the Nigerian Federal Government and the determination of former military ruler and the administration of Yakubu Gowon who was  the head of state of Nigeria from 1966 to 1975 to keep Nigeria united as one country.

Odumegwu Ojukwu

For the historical record and to counter Nigeria's Unity Slogan, breakaway Biafra led by Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu who served as the military governor of the Eastern Region of Nigeria in 1966, the leader of the breakaway Republic of Biafra put forth his own War Time Slogans for the East..."They (meaning Nigeria) Want Your Money, Not Your Prosperity, Biafra be Vigilant"..."The Price of Liberty is Eternal Vigilance, Biafrans be Vigilant." ....These too are also Nigerian sayings.  

I conclude by noting that Nigeria is an Enduring Nation and has withstood many dividing challenges in the past and will overcome the challenge posed by BOKO HARAM.  I am deeply grateful to the President of the United States for reminding Nigerians during this voting season of what is at stack here for Nigeria and that is the necessity for a fair and credible elections through the ballot box ..."To Keep Nigeria One Is A Task That Must Be Done"

Watch the Video of  President Obama’s Message to the Nigerian People




President Obama released a message to the Nigerian people to highlight the opportunity that the upcoming elections present for all Nigerians to stand together in rejecting violence and extremism and instead show their support for a more peaceful, secure, and prosperous future.

For a full text of the speech, follow this link President Obama’s Message to the Nigerian People

Nigeria Announces the Postponement of the Scheduled February 14, 2015 Presidential Elections

BREAKING NEWS

Nigeria Announces the Postponement of the Scheduled February 14, 2015 Presidential Elections

Commentary

by Tom Okure, PH.D

Date: February 7, 2015

The Nigerian government this Saturday, February 7, 2015 announced the postponement of the

INEC State Offices

scheduled February 14 presidential elections. The announcement comes amidst an increase in violence by a 5-year old Islamic insurgency called Boko Haram, a militant jihadist group that has seized about 30 villages and towns in the last year in northern Nigeria and is alleged by international security agencies to be able to go “toe-to-toe” with the Nigerian army.

The supporters of the two major political parties in Nigeria PDP and APC have been threatening violence should their candidate loose the presidential elections.  Political polling of the electorate and expert analysis of the campaigning status of the two major parties suggest a very close race. The PDP led government of President Jonathan has been in power since the end of military dictatorship in 1999. It will be recalled that about 800 people died as a consequence of rioting in the Muslim north soon after the current APC presidential candidate Buhari, a Muslim and former military dictator himself, lost his bid for the presidency in the 2011 elections to Jonathan, a Christian from the south.

The PDP party in Nigeria has been successful in wining every presidential election since the end of military rule. It has made significant strides in infrastructural development in many sectors of the economy but has been unable to contain the Boko Haram insurgency; and a seemingly growing and

INEC Chairman, Attahiru Jega

out of control high level corruption among government officials.  Nigeria like many other oil dependent economies is also witnessing a rapid slowdown in growth as a result of falling world oil prices and a failure in foresight by Nigerian policy makers to build up sufficient foreign reserves to sustain the economy until world oil prices rebounds.

The United States and its western allies have voiced concern over the inability of Nigeria’s military to stop the insurgency in the Muslim north but have insisted that the elections should proceed on schedule. John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State while visiting Nigeria recently remarked that "one of the best ways to fight back against Boko Haram" was by holding a credible and peaceful election on time.

Other Relevant links

A postponement also will give electoral officials more time to deliver some 30 million voter cards. The commission had said the non-delivery of cards to nearly half of the 68.8 million registered voters was not a good reason to delay the vote….Read more

http://news.yahoo.com/nigeria-postponing-feb-14-vote-amid-boko-haram-100041293.html

Civil society leaders, organized in support of credible and transparent elections in Nigeria, otherwise called the Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, reacted sharply blasting the security chiefs accusing them of fomenting a surreptitious coup against democracy. Read more….

http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/176432-breaking-21-inec-resident-commissioners-reject-postponement-elections.html

INEC PRESS STATEMENT

On Thursday, February 5, 2015, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Attahiru Jega, was invited to brief the National Council of States (NCS) on the preparedness of INEC to conduct the 2015 general elections. He made a presentation titled “Preparations for the 2015 General Elections: Progress Report.’ The National Security Adviser (NSA) and Armed Services Chiefs also briefed the Council on the current security situation….Read more http://www.inecnigeria.org/?inecnews=inec-press-statement-2